Sae's Notes

Joe Raedle/Getty Images, Trump Miami 2016 Rally It is no surprise that the election of Trump and his presidency thus-far have been an anomaly. It seems as though 21st century America has become more politically polarized on either spectrum of the political arena. As much as 19 candidates are officially running for the Democratic party to challenge the incumbent. Trump's first term has been turbulent with the ongoing Mueller case and tense negotiations with China over trade. Yet, it seems to have no effect on his more devoted followers. Just what would it take to make Trump a little bit on his tippy-toes? The economy. President 45 realizes that in order to be re-elected, he needs something to boast of to his followers. As of writing this article, FiveThirtyEight has released an approval rating of Trump at 42.6%, which remains to be lower than any previous president except Carter. Although low, it is interesting to note that Trump's approval rating has not been fluctuat

Trump's 2016 Election Victory Since December 2018, I have been researching and working on developing forecasting models in predicting US Presidential Elections. The models have been designed to incorporate both the quantitative and qualitative factors that predicts the outcome of an election. With that being said, the incoming 2020 election is expected to be a controversial one as President Trump is seeking a second-term in office amidst a volatile political climate in the United States. Election-pundits are looking into this election as a chance of redemption after the major upset victory by Trump in 2016 defying pollsters and election-odds. Here are some of the most important factors that I think will play a major role in the outcome of the 2020 election. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact The election of 2016 was a controversial one especially after the victory of Trump despite not winning the popular vote percentage against Hillary Clinton. There have been only