Important Factors Coming into the 2020 US Presidential Election

Trump's 2016 Election Victory

Since December 2018, I have been researching and working on developing forecasting models in predicting US Presidential Elections. The models have been designed to incorporate both the quantitative and qualitative factors that predicts the outcome of an election. With that being said, the incoming 2020 election is expected to be a controversial one as President Trump is seeking a second-term in office amidst a volatile political climate in the United States. Election-pundits are looking into this election as a chance of redemption after the major upset victory by Trump in 2016 defying pollsters and election-odds.

Here are some of the most important factors that I think will play a major role in the outcome of the 2020 election.

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The election of 2016 was a controversial one especially after the victory of Trump despite not winning the popular vote percentage against Hillary Clinton. There have been only four previous elections with this similar outcome, the previous one being the 2000 election in which George W. Bush won with only 48% of the national popular vote. This has spurred a heated debate on the viability of the electoral college and some have called for amending the electoral college.

States have banded together and advocated for an alternative solution that would not require the intricate process of drafting and ratifying a new amendment. Instead, the new interstate compact is an agreement among states including D.C to award all their respective electoral votes to the candidate that wins the national popular vote in the country. As of May 2019, a total of fourteen states and the D.C have agreed to this compact totaling 189 electoral votes. The compact must have a total of 270 electoral votes in order to come into legal force.

This could change the campaign process and the electoral landscape completely. The winner-takes-all method of strategically winning at least 270 electoral votes will no longer be effective. Thematic messages focusing on a particular region of interest (i.e. the midwest, rust-belt, etc.) may not be as important as a universal message that would attract the most votes purely for a high count.

Impending Recession

Economic performance remains to be a solid factor both sides of the political arena take on. Trump has not been so subtle in taking credit of the solid GDP growth rates and low unemployment numbers. The economy is on Trump's side heading into 2020 but a possible recession could turn the tide. As the effect of Trump's tax reform begins to fade, a looming recession stokes fear as evidenced by the stock market recently. About 40% of the economists forecast that a recession will hit in 2020 as the GDP growth rate seems to be stagnating/decreasing. Largely, protectionist policies advocated by the Trump administration poses an international market uncertainty. If Trump is to win his second-term, the economy needs to be in his side.

Challenger Charisma

Professor Allan Lichtman has proposed 13 true/false keys that would determine whether or not the incumbent party would remain in White House. He has correctly predicted which party would receive the most popular vote in every election except one. One key that I think stands to be a crucial factor coming into 2020 is if Trump's political opponent would be able to mobilize the masses just like Trump was able to achieve in 2016.

President Trump was able to strike a chord with the Republican base with his grassroots message, something Hillary Clinton just could not match. If the Democratic party is to have any chance against Trump, it would be to back a potential candidate that can mobilize its base for a high turnout. As of now, the Democratic electorate seems to be undecided at a particular candidate and may be awhile until we will see a potential front-runner against the incumbent.


In the following week, I will be posting an article about what I think will not be important factors coming into the 2020 election. In addition, I may post a preliminary forecast of what the current models say about who would win the election.

If you think there are other factors or suggestions, feel free to comment below!